Verdict: Total home goals over 2.5
Best odds: 10/11
Bookmaker: Olympusbet
Aston Villa can strengthen their push for Champions League qualification with a win over Tottenham Hotspur at Villa Park on Friday.
Unai Emery’s side edged past Bournemouth 1-0 on May 10 and sit sixth with 63 points – level with fifth-placed Chelsea – with only two games left. In contrast, Spurs are struggling near the bottom in 17th place, having suffered a 2-0 loss to Crystal Palace last weekend, and remain on 38 points.
Aston Villa
Aston Villa were somewhat fortunate to leave the Vitality Stadium with all three points against Bournemouth, having managed only six shots – three of which came in first-half stoppage time – with their final effort arriving just one minute into the second half.
Unai Emery will not mind the manner of victory, as Villa trail the final Champions League qualification spot only on goal difference. Chelsea, their main rival, still have to face Manchester United and seventh-placed Nottingham Forest.
Failure to secure a Champions League place could have serious implications for Villa, especially with reports suggesting they risk breaching profit and sustainability rules, which may affect their ability to retain key players.
Villa enter Friday’s game with back-to-back clean sheets and have shut out opponents in five of their last eight Premier League matches, conceding just three goals in that span. Emery’s men have also been in fine form, winning seven of their past eight league fixtures, losing just once, and netting 16 goals in that run.
Their home record has been particularly impressive: Villa are unbeaten in their last 20 Premier League games at Villa Park, winning 14 of them, including their most recent seven.
Team News
Emery will have to make do without Jacob Ramsey, who is suspended following his red card against Bournemouth, creating a selection headache in attack, especially as Marcus Rashford is dealing with a hamstring injury.
Ollie Watkins is likely to lead the line, ed by Morgan Rogers, Marco Asensio, and John McGinn. While Youri Tielemans remains sidelined, Boubacar Kamara and Amadou Onana are both available and could start in midfield, positioned ahead of central defenders Ezri Konsa and Pau Torres.
Tottenham Hotspur
Tottenham were fortunate not to concede more than twice in their recent loss to Crystal Palace, having allowed 23 shots, 10 on target, and eight big chances across a concerning display.
Head coach Ange Postecoglou has endured a difficult campaign, with this shaping up to be Spurs’ worst-ever Premier League season. Defeat on Friday would mark their 21st loss from 37 league matches.
The London side have already faced Villa twice this season, losing 2-1 at Villa Park in the FA Cup on February 9, but earning a 4-1 league victory at home on November 3, 2024.
Postecoglou has attributed the team’s underwhelming domestic form to both a lengthy injury list and their Europa League commitments, suggesting their focus has largely shifted towards next week’s final.
Tottenham have lost seven of their last 10 Premier League games, with their only win in that stretch coming against bottom-placed Southampton on April 6. They are also without a win in their last five league away games, losing four of them while conceding 13 goals and scoring just four.
Team News
James Maddison has been ruled out for the remainder of the season, while Dejan Kulusevski’s recent surgery further weakens Postecoglou’s squad ahead of the Europa League final.
Son Heung-min could line up alongside Brennan Johnson and Richarlison in attack, though the former two are unlikely to complete the full 90 minutes given the midweek European showdown.
In midfield, Archie Gray, Yves Bissouma, and Pape Matar Sarr are potential starters with Lucas Bergvall unavailable due to an ankle injury.
Cristian Romero and Micky van de Ven are not expected to start, given their injury histories and the looming final, which could see Ben Davies and Kevin Danso feature in central defence ahead of goalkeeper Guglielmo Vicario.
Conclusion
Villa have been outstanding in the Premier League, and they will fancy their chances of continuing their push for a Champions League place.
With Tottenham expected to rotate heavily and their attention clearly fixed on next week’s Europa League final, the visitors may lack both focus and cohesion, making a comfortable home win a very realistic outcome.
Verdict: Total home goals over 2.5
Best odds: 10/11
Bookmaker: Olympusbet
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