Verdict: Draw
Best odds: 11/5
Bookmaker: Luckster
Reigning UEFA Nations League holders Spain face in the semifinals of the 2024/25 competition at MHPArena in Stuttgart on Thursday night.
The winner of this one-off semifinal clash – a rematch of the 2021/22 final – will meet either or Portugal in the final on June 8, while the loser will compete in the third-place play-off that same day.
Spain
After collecting 16 points from a possible 18 across six League A Group 4 games (W5 D1), Spain topped their group and then triumphed in a thrilling, two-legged quarterfinal against the Netherlands in March.
Both legs ended 2-2 in regular time, and after Lamine Yamal put Spain ahead in extra time, Xavi Simons equalized to make it 3-3 overall, sending the tie to penalties. Spain, the Euro 2024 champions, held their nerve and edged the shootout 5-4.
Ranked second globally by FIFA behind Argentina, Spain are on a 20-match unbeaten streak in all competitions (W15 D5) since a 2-0 Euro qualifier loss to Scotland in March 2023.
La Roja have netted two or more goals in 16 of those 90-minute matches, though they’ve failed to keep a clean sheet in their last four Nations League games, conceding at least twice in each of their last three – a run not seen since 1980/81 when they let in 2+ goals in more than three straight fixtures.
Spain aim to become the first side to retain the Nations League since its 2018 inception. They beat Italy 2-1 in their previous semifinal two years ago and defeated by the same scoreline in last July’s Euro 2024 semifinal.
Team News
Rodri, last year’s Ballon d’Or winner, remains sidelined as he works on fitness at Manchester City ahead of the Club World Cup, while Barcelona’s Ferran Torres is out after appendix surgery late last month.
Real Betis star Isco could make his first Spain appearance since 2019, while Gavi returns to the senior setup after his 2023 cruciate injury, competing with Pedri, Martin Zubimendi, and PSG’s Champions League winner Fabian Ruiz for a midfield spot.
Pau Cubarsi is also back after missing the last international window with injury, and the 18-year-old centre-back will hope to displace Real Madrid’s new g Dean Huijsen. Up front, Lamine Yamal, Dani Olmo, and Nico Williams may Mikel Oyarzabal.
failed to advance from their group in the previous Nations League, finishing third with just five points from six matches, but they improved in 2023–24 by collecting 13 points to top League A Group 2, edging Italy on goal difference.
Les Bleus then overturned a 2-0 first-leg deficit to eliminate Croatia in the quarter-finals. Michael Olise and Ousmane Dembele scored in Paris to level the tie, which went to penalties. Mike Maignan made a crucial save before Dayot Upamecano secured a 5-4 shootout win.
Ranked third globally by FIFA, have narrowly missed out in recent major tournaments—losing the 2022 World Cup final and falling in the Euro 2024 semi-finals—and are now chasing their first title since beating Spain in the 2021 Nations League final.
Didier Deschamps, at the helm for nearly 13 years, has won 106 of his 167 games (63.47%) in charge. The 56-year-old plans to step down after the 2026 World Cup and hopes to finish his tenure on a high.
Beating Spain on Thursday won’t be straightforward, as have alternated wins and losses in their last five meetings with La Roja (W3 L2), with four of those decided by a one-goal margin—including the 2-1 win in the 2021 UNL final.
Team News
Seven French players featured in the recent Champions League final, including Man of the Match Desire Doue and Ballon d’Or hopeful Dembele, which could influence Deschamps’ starting XI selection.
With Upamecano, William Saliba, and Jules Kounde sidelined by injury, Benjamin Pavard and Malo Gusto are options at right-back, while Deschamps must choose between Lucas Hernandez, Clement Lenglet, or uncapped Loic Bade to partner Liverpool star Ibrahima Konate in central defence.
Kylian Mbappe, just two goals away from his 50th international strike, is set to lead the line as captain, while Lyon’s Rayan Cherki, linked with Manchester City, hopes to earn his first senior cap after a standout 2024/25 season.
Conclusion
Both nations boast an abundance of attacking talent, but Deschamps’ handling of the returning French stars who featured in the Champions League final could play a key role in shaping the outcome of Thursday’s compelling clash.
It would be unwise to rule out either of these European giants in this one-off encounter, which has every chance of extending beyond the regulation 90 minutes.
Verdict: Draw
Best odds: 11/5
Bookmaker: Luckster
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